NGV Market Growth 2013 Analysis
So here we go again, approaching the end of the year and starting analyzing the 2013 market growth of the NGV sector. By beginning of November 2013, at least 46 countries out of 85 NGV nations have submitted its 2013 update statistics to Asian NGV Communications. As you can see in the worldwide statistics table in the latest pages of this magazine, those 2013 updates vary from March to October. It means that the actual total figures of end 2013 will be bigger than those reported and analyzed here. The figures below are rounded.
From the total 18.098M vehicles, 16,625,000 are cars and Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs), 794,000 are Medium to Heavy-Duty (MDHD) buses, 376,000 MD-HD trucks, and 303,000 “other” types of vehicles ( mainly three wheelers followed by forklifts, tractors, several ships/boats/ferries, few locomotives, and others). The 2012-2013 growths in percentage for cars/LDVs, MD-HD buses and trucks are 5, 13, and 4% respectively.
From the total 24,400 filling stations, 21,400 are open for public and almost 3,000 serving private fleets only. These include CNG, LNG, and LCNG stations with fuel supply from conventional natural gas sources and renewable biomethane. Although 1,300 natural gas (NG) filling stations were reported to be constructed soon (within a year period), the actual number is very likely much higher than this. This argument is presented especially since China and Russia have ambitious target in widely expanding the refueling network across the country (China) or even European region (for Russia), while the United State of America also shows tendencies to build up a nationwide LNG filling network while CNG/DDF segment also continues to grow. In “theory”, 68.2 million (M) normal cubic meter (Nm3) of gas are consumed by the transport sector this year. The gas consumption theory is based on several references in which cars consume 180, buses 3000, trucks 800, and other vehicles 50 Nm3 per month. There is, of course, a huge difference between different truck types. A 44 ton truck may consume up to 8,000 (not 800) Nm3 per month, while an LNG or dual fuel ship consumes much more than that.
Growth in the vehicle market
Looking at the current available data, there are at least 18.1M NGVs and more than 24,000 NG filling stations across the globe. It shows a 5% increase in the vehicle segment since end of last year, and 14% of positive growth in the filling station. The 5% growth with almost 906,000 additional NGVs might seem to be low compared to the growths in recent years, in which around 1.6 to 2.4M NGVs added per year in 2007 to 2012. This mainly triggered, by the lack of gas supply in Pakistan-2nd largest NGV country-that led to various government policies resulting in a declining market. It used to be one of the main contributors of the growth, adding hundreds of thousands of NGVs annually. As the government decided to impose rotational closures of CNG filling stations in different cities,
combined with a new policy to limit the use of CNG in private transport sector while banning importation of CNG kits and cylinders equipment, at least 10% of the Pakistani NGV fleet was re-retrofitted to petrol or LPG mode. Consequently, around 310,000 units were deducted from the 2013 statistics. On the other hand, we are still using a conservative estimation for China NGV fleet-1.577M from June 2013- despite of several local stakeholders’ estimation that approximately 2M NGVs were already operated in China by end of 2012. Updates from India and Armenia, are yet to submitted as well. Nevertheless, the current total NGV market is already exceeding the projection made by US-based Pike Research in 2009. The company has forecasted that the number of NGVs worldwide will reach 17M by 2015 with a sales growth of 5.5% annually. As we know, by 2013, we are now plying more than 18M NGVs across the world (14M NGVs are already on the road by mid-2011). Nevertheless, it is still 10M away of IGU’s 2009 report that projected at least 29.19M NGVs would be on the road by 2015. This projection was made using “Business as Usual Scenario” with 2005 as the base year of the calculation. However, by end of 2008, the economic crisis and decrease in oil prices slow down the growth in the NGV business.
On the contrary, this year the fueling segment took a big jump mainly thanks to China-with a total 3,005 stations added globally, leading us to a 14% annual growth. IGU’s 2009 projection for year 2015 is to have 37,601 NG filling stations across the globe. At the moment, around 24,400 stations are operational in five continents.
Six Asian countries are in the top-10 largest NGV nations, this year, with Iran leading the pack (#1 globally with 3.5M NGVs), followed by Pakistan (#2 with 2.79M), China and India (#5 and 6 with 1.577 and 1.5M), Uzbekistan and Thailand (#9 and 10 with 450,000 and Around 423,000 NGVs). Argentine, Brazil, and Colombia from South America take the 3rd, 4th, and 8th place with 2.28M, 1.75M and 457,000 vehicles, while Italy from Europe at #7 operates 823,000 NGVs.
In the fueling segment, Iran has almost 2,100 stations, Pakistan 3,000 (not all are in service everyday), Argentina 1,900, Brazil 1,800, China with a whopping 5,100 stations, India 700, Italy 1,000, Colombia 700, Uzbekistan 210, and Thailand 4901 stations. All of the countries above operates CNG filling stations, with exceptions of Thailand that has 1 LNG and 1 LCNG station, Italy with 7 LCNG stations, and China with 3,350 CNG, 1,330 LNG, and 400 LCNG stations by June 2013. Other countries that have LNG and/or LCNG stations-in alphabetical order- include Australia (10 LNG stations), Estonia, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia (1 LNG and 1 LCNG), South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and the USA.
Last year, Asia has 10.8M NGVs and 11,600 NG filling stations. At that time, 63% of global NGV fleet and 55% of the refueling stations were in Asia. This year, Asia is home to 11.08M of the vehicles and 13,800 stations. The Asian share in the global market increased to 61% for vehicles and 56% for stations. Of the total NGVs and station in the region, 10.7M vehicles and 13,100 stations are in Asia-Pacific while the rest operates in Eurasian countries (Armenia, Georgia, Moldavia, Turkey) and Russia.
Partly digested from “Asian NGV Communications”
in News Asia